Global markets tumbled overnight on the back of releases from the start of the EU summit, which is the first significant move we have seen this week from a number of major indexes signalling that current movements for Europe may not be enough to encourage a positive market sentiment.

Forex:

Exit:

GBP/USD

Exit and New Entry:

AUD/JPY  Short

AUD/USD  Short

New Entry:

NZD/USD  Short

USD/JPY  Short

Higher than expected unemployment date from Australia and greater safe haven sentiment extended to USD and JPY sees the short-lived long signals involving the AUD quickly become short signals today.

Sentiment regarding the Euro Summit suggests not enough policy and action will be delivered over the weekend. That being the case we may see increasing strengthening of the USD and JPY moving forward as well as a general softening of not only the EUR but also adjacent GBP and CHF economies.

In general, traders may therefore see a bearish resumption to the EUR following some possible short-lived optimism Monday morning.

Commodities:

Crude Oil (CL2F) declined overnight on market weakness and continued macro correlation being shown in the global markets.  The move is likely to target on the short-term price point of 94.80. The move down could be short lived as increasing concern of Iran’s global position and seat as OPEC’s second biggest producer comes under fire as Europe and the US look to restrict Iran’s cash flow to sustain is current nuclear program.

Sanctions and bans on Iranian exported Crude, imposed across Europe and potentially by the US may be enough to spark a surge in Oil prices as we progress in 2012.  Targets of $150 a barrel may be on the horizon if the shift occurs in the market. Other predictions have been estimated as high as $200+ per barrel.

This is based on looking at one side of the argument, which at this point would be the most likely short-term reaction to the ban on Iranian Oil.

The other side could see minimal movement, as the demand for Crude could change given the current situation in Europe which is impacting global economies and seeing a decline in demand from China and also from India. Should this continue to occur these two powerhouses could have more bargaining power when it comes to securing oil supplies leading to little change in the overall market price.

At the moment it continues to be a tug-of-war between these two scenarios and which one is likely to impact the pricing first.

Options:

No updates today.

ETF:

No updates today.

Sniper 2.0

Sniper Moderation – No trades where taken for the latest moderated session.

Sniper Auto – No trades where taken for the latest auto session.

Trade consistently,

The Lifestyle Trading Team

Overnight trading continued to see very little action in anticipation for the EU summit, which will no doubt be a key turning point in the fate of the Euro. For many it has become clear that the fate of the European financial markets rest with the politicians that make up the Eurozone and the EU.

Movements on the ESFS and a longer-term stability fund for the Euro will be discussed, along with guidelines on fiscal policy for Euro members. Also to be discussed are breaches to the conditions of being part of the Euro, which have been broken, mainly by Greece in terms of their debt levels, and how these laws will be enforced moving forward.

Forex:

Exit and New Entry:

EUR/GBP  Short

New Entry:

AUD/JPY  Long

AUD/USD Long

EUR/JPY  Short

GBP/USD  Long

Markets traded on light volume overnight in anticipation of an expected reduction in the Euro Official rate from 1.25% to 1%, announced tonight, as well as the outcome from the Eurozone summit this weekend.

That being the case we see further periods of ranging/consolidating markets.

All new signals excepting the EUR/GBP show near horizontal Entry crosses suggesting a ‘wait and see’ approach from traders and as a result some of these new positions may only deliver modest movement.

Commodities:

Coffee (KC2H) produced another dotted cross for today’s update, which was a reversal to yesterday’s dotted cross. This highlights the current increase in daily volatility and also the coverage of the daily range on this product. Coffee has traded within a very congested range for the last several months from the start of October, which has made the potential for signals to succeed minimal, from a trend trading perspective. As this is the case traders may look to minimise their activity with this product and look for a break of the range moving into next year.

Options:

No updates today.

ETF:

No updates today.

Sniper 2.0

Sniper Moderation – No trades where taken for the latest moderated session.

Sniper Auto – No trades where taken for the latest auto session.

Trade consistently,

The Lifestyle Trading Team

The markets held overnight with the majority of products seeing less then a 1% movement. Slightly more movement was anticipated as a reaction of the ratings watch discussed in yesterday’s daily.  However on minimal movement and volume we may see a generally quite week pass as we look toward the EU summit towards the end of the week. This will hopefully provide a clearer path for the Euro and the Eurozone, allowing for an extended market outlook to be possible for the first three months of 2012.

Forex:

Exit signals:

AUD/JPY

AUD/USD

EUR/JPY

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

NZD/USD

Exit and New Entry:  GBP/JPY  Short

New Entry:     USD/CHF  Long

In line with market sentiment we see a halt to a number of retracements confirmed with the aforementioned exit signals.

A headline comment regarding the Swiss economy being in ‘deflation’ suggests the USD/CHF may have some upside to it despite its current position being at a recent level of resistance.

We observe a ‘wait and see’ approach to a number of these currency pairings leading into the Eurozone summit held at the end of this week.

The end result may be a further consolidation followed by a return to a bearish Eurozone outlook.

Commodities:

Crude Oil (CL2F) continues to hang above $100 per barrel, but has made very little ground higher over the last couple of days, with topside resistance @ 103.30. The overall look of the movement appears to be the start of a down trend, however with the looming threat of action in Iran, we could see a temporary spike in price as their oil production could be impacted. Along with this possible impact to other oil trade may be interrupted, which may see pricing extend higher for the medium term.

Options:

The Options scene continues to be mostly unchanged with the current indecision in the markets continuing to add to what has been a somewhat quiet month for options positions.

ETF:

No updates today.

Sniper 2.0

Sniper Moderation – The moderated session profited with three trades, finishing with a seventeen pip gain.

The first trade reached its profit target of eleven pips. The second and third trades closed out with two and four pip gains respectively.

Sniper Auto – Sniper auto had a very quiet run, picking up no trades.

Trade consistently,

The Lifestyle Trading Team

As we head into the EU summit this week to further determine the fate of the Euro and the European Union as we move towards 2012, Standard and Poor’s have thrown another spanner in the works providing notice to 15 Euro nations of a possible downgrade which will be determined most likely next week after the decision of the summit.

France is on the list, which has been under watch recently, however Germany have also fallen into the mix of a possible downgrade.

Forex:

Exit signal:  USD/CHF

In line with yesterday’s thoughts we see a consolidation of recent trends involving bullish movement with the European currencies.

The propensity of the Euro zone to deliver concerning news continues with the possible down grading of six or maybe all of the Eurozone economies including the big two, Germany and France.

That being the case we may see further strengthening of the USD and JPY and a number of new short trade entries this week resuming the overall bearish sentiment towards Europe.

Commodities:

Cocoa (CC2H) continues to decline extending the movement from the signal on the 9th November.

Options:

No updates today.

ETF:

No updates today.

Sniper 2.0

Sniper Moderation – A slow start to the week for Sniper moderated with a loss  -11.5pips

Sniper Auto – A slow start to the week for Sniper auto with a loss -10.4pips

Trade consistently,

The Lifestyle Trading Team

Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti will today present to both houses of parliament a plan for 30 billion euros ($40 billion) of austerity and growth measures that his cabinet approved yesterday.

The package will allow for changes to the current pension structure, which is likely to cause continued issue, which may turned into protests similar to Greece as similar measures where past there with this result.

Other changes include taxes on housing and luxury items along with a second change to Value Added Tax (VAT) similar to our GST.

This package has been quoted as a “decree to save Italy” says Prime Minister Mario Monti.

In other movements this week, European leaders are scheduled to meet Dec. 9 to address the region’s debt crisis after the failure of their fourth rescue blueprint intensified concern that the 17-nation euro is on the brink of unravelling.

Forex:

Exit and New Entry: EUR/GBP Long

New Entry: EUR/CHF Long

Both these currency pairs have shown in the past to often have a range-bound tendency.

As we await the results of the implemented Central Banks liquidity strategy we may see an initial boosting of the Euro currency with possibly a period of weakening as the true strength and benefit is assessed.

We have seen some consolidation of last week’s retracements and market sentiment suggests we may see further strengthening of the US Dollar and Japanese Yen occurring in the near future.

Commodities:

Commodities trading ended the week, much as it started, with very minimal movement and low volumes. Key movers included Coffee, which headed short after a one-day rally that saw it move from medium term support to the topside of the recent range that has been established. Apart from the recent movements in Cocoa and Sugar, the Softs market has been very range-bound for the past several months, seeing minimal change in price overall from August values for a number of products.

Options:

No updates for today.

ETF:

XLE moved higher last week for the most part, topping just below recent resistance @ 72.90 to end the week. A short-term reversal from this level may occur towards the start of this week.

Sniper 2.0

Friday proved to be an uneventful session for Sniper with one trade being placed across the moderated and auto sessions. This followed through on low volume for the start of the month and was seen across a number of different trading facets.

Sniper Moderation – Sniper moderated finished the week with one trade on Friday being stopped out on the move for an 11pip loss.

Sniper Auto – Sniper Auto had no trades for Friday’s session.

Trade consistently,

The Lifestyle Trading Team

Last night saw minimal follow through on the back of Wednesdays’ charge higher, highlighting that this could simply be a knee-jerk reaction to the central banks announcements. Monday will see the commencement of liquidity action among the banks and may produce another small rally, but is less likely.

Also another detail to factor into the Wednesday movement was the end of November, which would have accounted for some adjustments in volume and balancing which would have caused a push higher.

Forex:

Exit signal:  USD/JPY

No new entry signals today.

Market sentiment suggests a number of this week’s retracements may be losing momentum.

Thoughts also suggest the USD and JPY will continue to strengthen after losing ground at the beginning of the week passed.

Monday sees the implementation of the Major Banks’ initiative to increase liquidity to the Eurozone. That being the case we may again see some short- term strengthening of the Euro and surrounding currencies but greater political action may be required to sustain the positiveness.

Commodities:

Cotton (CT2H) is currently holding on support, with the current long signal in play.  A potential shift lower may be expected tonight or early next week breaking this support level as Cotton figures released recently show an increase in production in China, which will account for an estimated record crop for this harvest, combined with a slowdown in demand and consumption of the product. These two factors combined for a Commodity are a worse case scenario as the levels of available product, effectively will flood the market (reword, this sounds funny).

An alternate perspective would see countries buying the product at a lower price, when compared with the recent highs we have seen through 180 in March, which would account for an approximate 50% decrease in price and a chance to replenish stockpiles of the product, causing a temporary spike in price.

Options:

With the shift in the market this week, Options opportunities have been limited; this is expected to occur for the remainder of the December expiry.  Monitoring of BECS position going into next week will be key if the markets continue to drive higher on the back of the liquidity increase that is proposed to start Monday.

ETF:

No updates today.

Sniper 2.0

SniperFx Moderator 1 said: “The session started slowly as there seemed to be a hangover from the previous day’s rally. However after a sluggish, and slightly bearish, start the market started to rally lead by the GBP. We traded the AUD and EUR towards the end of the session for a tidy gain. The new and improved sniper system gave clear and well timed signals on both trades.”

Sniper Moderation – The moderated session started the month off with a profitable session locking in 21pips for the evening.

Sniper Auto – The auto session started the month off with a profitable session locking in 15.4pips for the evening.

Trade consistently,

The Lifestyle Trading Team

In a global effort to ease the Eurozone’s debt crisis, key central banks across the globe cut borrowing rates overnight making it cheaper for banks to borrow dollars in emergencies.

The central banks aimed at easing strains in financial markets which saw increased gains across Equities and Commodities. For many, this will ease concerns on the debt crisis however it still appears to be prolonging of the inevitable of a collapse of the European markets and a breakdown of the Euro as a currency.

Company Update

Last night Murray Priestley and Aussie Rob hosted a Company Update webinar to update clients on the highlights of 2011, and what’s in store for 2012.

We received some great feedback and questions from our clients on the call.

We have scheduled a Q&A webinar session for 7 December 2011 to run through each person’s question. A registration link is listed below.

For anyone that missed last night’s Company Update webinar, a recording is available in the Member’s Area to watch, click here to login and view.

Please note if you have any questions regarding the topics discussed in the Company Update webinar, please jot them down and be on the Q&A session next week to ask Murray then.

For those who cannot attend, the Q&A session will also be recorded.

Forex:

Exit and New Entry:  EUR/USD Long
USD/CHF  Short

New Entry:  EUR/JPY  Long
GBP/USD  Long

The announcement of some of the World’s major Central banks deciding to assist an increase of liquidity to the cash strapped Eurozone has resulted in a release of pressure for the Euro currency and a bullish retracement for some Euro currency pairs.

Concern could be lent to the length and duration of these trends given that this recent announcement may achieve little more than affording time to the Eurozone Leaders to rectify what is obviously a worrying economic situation.

That being the case there may only be modest upside for the new EUR entry signals before a resumption of bigger picture bearish sentiment.

Commodities:

A number of Commodities traded higher yesterday of the back of market announcements, continuing the short-term reversal from the recent Commodities slump.

Crude Oil (CL2F) traded higher closing marginally above $100 per barrel, but still appears to be struggling with this level. Given the strength of the overnight moves a larger gain would have been expected as the potential increase in demand from the Eurozone in particular should be on the cards if the slowdown of this area is to be solved or at least pushed back for an undetermined timeframe.

Options:

No updates today

ETF:

No updates today.

Sniper 2.0
Sniper Moderation – The moderated session closed lower by -5.5pips over two trades.
Sniper Auto – The Auto session ended on a lower note with a -22pip loss for the week.
Trade consistently,

The Lifestyle Trading Team

Overnight the ratings agencies were at it again, this time focusing on the US and Chinese banks with a number of downgrades occurring.  Standard and Poor’s have led the charge with these downgrades with other agencies expected to follow suit.

With the downgrades came some unexpected ratings for a select few Chinese banks being rated higher then the big banks of the US, seeing a potential shift in power in global banking.

Company Update

Murray Priestley and Aussie Rob will be presenting a Lifestyle company update webinar outlining the highlights of 2011 and what’s planned for 2012.

We will also be introducing AUTO Trading to the Lifestyle Trader line up.

We will explain what this is and how it will change the way you trade. This is a huge announcement, which we’re sure you’ll find very interesting and will not want to miss out on.

In this webinar, topics will include:

• Why 2011 saw many challenges for traders and investors alike
• How out of adversity comes innovation
• Why 95% of traders lose their capital in the first 12 months of trading
• Why only 5% of traders will be profitable by themselves
• Why it’s likely YOU are the problem when it comes to trading
• Why the industry is against you and what you can do to overcome this
• How Auto trading can benefit you
• And much, much more…

Date and Time: 30 November 6pm Your Local time.

Register here: http://www.lifestyletrader.com/companyupdatewebinar

Forex:

Exit signals: EUR/CHF

EUR/JPY

GBP/USD

New entry:  GBP/JPY  – Long

Market sentiment suggests that the recent ground lost by the USD and JPY might soon be made up.

That being the case the new signal of GBP/JPY may range in a relatively consolidating manner.

Rallies earlier this week against the USD may also consolidate and revert to the overall safe haven strengthening which may predominantly see the US pairs resume their overall trending directions of last week, especially after the release of stronger than expected date regarding the US Consumer Confidence results last night.

Commodities:

Four new signals have been generated off of the back of the recent holiday with a number of movements showing follow through from the weaker session that started the week.

Crude seems to be travelling on a mix of market optimism from Europe and the US as we see an increase in media spin this week. There is potential for the signal to move higher with a topside level of 103.50 as we encounter monthly resistance. For this to occur 100 will need to be broken with a strong finish which has not occurred for the last two days after breaking this price point during the session, only to close lower.

The Grains signals today will likely see continued rises along with other expected signals across this sector.

Rough Rice and Sugar appear to be ending the recent movement with pullbacks expected this week.

Options:

No Options updates for today.

ETF:

No ETF updates for today.

Sniper 2.0

Sniper produced zero trades for yesterday’s session, across the moderated and auto environments.

Trade consistently,

The Lifestyle Trading Team

Murray Priestley and Aussie Rob will be presenting a Lifestyle company update webinar outlining the highlights of 2011 and what’s planned for 2012.

We will also be introducing AUTO Trading to the Lifestyle Trader line up.

We will explain what this is and how it will change the way you trade. This is a huge announcement, which we’re sure you’ll find very interesting and will not want to miss out on.

In this webinar, topics will include:

• Why 2011 saw many challenges for traders and investors alike
• How out of adversity comes innovation
• Why 95% of traders lose their capital in the first 12 months of trading
• Why only 5% of traders will be profitable by themselves
• Why it’s likely YOU are the problem when it comes to trading
• Why the industry is against you and what you can do to overcome this
• How Auto trading can benefit you
• And much, much more…

Date and Time: 30 November 6pm Your Local time.

Register here: http://www.lifestyletrader.com/companyupdatewebinar

Forex:

New signals:

AUD/JPY – Long

AUD/USD - Long

EUR/GBP  - Short

NZD/USD  - Long

USD/CAD  - Short

Overall we could consider all four AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and USD/CAD new trades to have limited strength and could be expected to consolidate reasonably quickly and in turn revert to the direction of overall recent trending.

Countering this thought would require worse-than-expected news to be released out of the US, which appears unlikely.

The EUR/GBP trade is set to continue in its typical range-bound dynamic.

The global sentiment suggests that the recent short term weakening of the USD and JPY safe-haven currencies may have run its course. As a result we have seen a number of new reversing signals.

A relative immediate period of consolidation as we await further direction regarding Euro zone debt coupled with the Consumer Confidence data released from the US.

Commodities:

Commodities pushed higher overall for Monday’s trading on very low volume still for the majority of the Commodities LT 9 tracks; this indicates that we looking for more traders to rejoin this week’s trading.

One result we could see is a follow though of movement in the bullish direction as traders return to the market to provide support to last night’s move. We could also see continued strength to the upside for the week. At the moment this is the weaker of two outcomes, with the second being a reversal in direction and for the markets to continue to decline. This will be partially based on traders filtering through the multitude of inaccurate or incorrect data released over the weekend.

Options:

No Options updates for today.

ETF:

No ETF updates for today.

Sniper 2.0

Check out the Sniper blog (http://tradingpits.com/blog) for updates on the Sniper sessions from our moderators.

Sniper Moderation – Had a slow start to the week with two trades, resulting in a half-pip loss on brokerage.

Sniper Auto – Had a slow start to the week with two trades, resulting in a half-pip loss on brokerage.

Trade consistently,

The Lifestyle Trading Team

Speculation grows today as the IMF is rumoured to be preparing a loan for as much as 600 billion Euros for Italy to “help out” should the country’s debt levels continue to worsen. If this is the case, and further details develop, the loan will more then likely come into play to help prevent the need to refinance the countries debt for the next 12-18 months.

At the moment the details are still unconfirmed, however the information seems to have boosted global markets today, which continue to trade higher.

Along with this record sales for Black Friday have been reported in the US, which has no doubt spurred an increase in positive sentiment for the day.

I would say one of the main reasons for this information to have taken such a hold would be the drive for traders to see some “green on the screen” after the rout of global markets last week which saw a seventh consecutive day of red or negative movements.

Company Update Webinar

Murray Priestley and Aussie Rob will be presenting a Lifestyle company update webinar outlining the highlights of 2011 and what’s planned for 2012.

We will also be introducing AUTO Trading to the Lifestyle Trader lineup.

We will explain what this is and how it will change the way you trade. This is a huge announcement, which we’re sure you’ll find very interesting and will not want to miss out on.

In this webinar, topics will include:

• Why 2011 saw many challenges for traders and investors alike
• How out of adversity comes innovation
• Why 95% of traders lose their capital in the first 12 months of trading
• Why only 5% of traders will be profitable by themselves
• Why it’s likely YOU are the problem when it comes to trading
• Why the industry is against you and what you can do to overcome this
• How Auto trading can benefit you
• And much, much more…

Date and Time: 30 November 6pm Your Local time.

Register here: http://www.lifestyletrader.com/companyupdatewebinar

Forex:

New signal: USD/CHF Long – Having surpassed the recent high from the first week of October and closing above the 93cent resistance we could see this pair continue on its recent bullish direction. Although the CHF is separate from the Eurozone we could see a softening of the CHF due to perceived concerns with all European currencies coupled with a continual boosting of the safe haven USD.

Exit signal:  EUR/GBP

Most signals remain valid as per last week however several Short trends show signs of halting and in fact reversing.

The USD and JPY may experience short-term weakness due to optimism surrounding a rumored IMF plan to help Italy.

Volume levels should return to normal as the markets open after the US Thanksgiving public holiday last week.

Major announcements due for release tomorrow include German Consumer Price Index and US Consumer Confidence.

Commodities:

Commodities trading ended the week on a weaker note, with minimal movements occurring for Friday’s session, as anticipated. Monday’s session is expected to see a medium to large shift to the upside across a broad range of Commodities.

Options:

Traders will be looking to tonight’s sessions for an indication of this week’s moves, off the back of the recent holiday break. With the seven consecutive falling days for equities a bounce may be on the cards for tonight’s trading, allowing for setups to develop for Options this week as we progress through December expiry.

Last week we looked at the SPY ETF as an inverse comparison to TLT as part of our ETF coverage. For Monday’s sessions I wanted to look at this chart again and see how we can use this to assist our timing with placing Options.

With the amount of macro correlation we are seeing across US equities it has impaired the trading characteristics of individual stocks and has made timing of entries a key factor for trading Options in the current environment.

Taking a step back and looking at an index chart, such as the SPY can allow us to gain some perspective on where we are as part of an overall move, as these macro movements are and have been the driving force for a number stock movements.

What does this all mean? Well take a look the below chart we have some standard support (green) and resistance (red) lines across the chart based on three time frames, Monthly, Weekly and Daily. Along with this we have white dotted lines, these indicate the top and bottom of the current ranges that have been established over the last four and half months.

Click for a larger version of the chart

Now based on these ranges we can relate this to an individual stock movement and if it appears to be following the same patterns of movement. If the stock is following similar movements it is fair to say that this stock is caught up in the overall market movement and is likely to top out at upside market resistance and bottom out on market support, which is established on the SPY chart.

If this is the case from an Option timing point of view this is where we need to act on stronger setups looking to write below the market as it bottoms out i.e a BUPS position or to write above the market when it appears to be topping out i.e a BECS position.

As Options traders is this something that you have used to get an overall perspective on market movements or sentiment to help improve your timing with entries? Do you believe this could be beneficial to your trading? Feel free to leave a comment to let us know, or if you would like further expansion on this information.

ETF: Along with Commodities ETF’s saw an overall decrease in volume and activity to end the week. A push to the upside is anticipated for the start of the week.

Sniper 2.0

Sniper returned to the trading arena last week for a condensed week, due to Thanksgiving, not trading on Thursday and Friday.

The potential for Sniper this week is increased, as trading volumes will flow back into the FX market post the Thanksgiving holiday.

Sniper Moderation – The moderated session ended the week higher with a 6-pip profit, overall.

Sniper Auto – The Auto session ended on a lower note with a 31-pip loss for the week.

Trade consistently,

The Lifestyle Trading Team