G’day Traders,

Today I am not going to talk about what happened overnight or on Friday. Really – it is irrelevant for the new trades you will enter after the holiday.

You really need to wait until after the market closes today.

Why? Well, firstly there is a risk in that. The risk is that trends continue and that you miss some of those, or that when you get in, after tomorrow’s signals, that the markets reverse.

This can always happen.

Do you see what I am doing here? I am trying to say “Do not second guess the markets tonight”. You should never do this anyway, but there are some positives here.

A major US holiday is usually the start of new conditions. Traders that have not been ‘emotionally’ involved over the markets come back from holidays. They will have a different perspective because of this and should make a more rational decision. Therefore trends can start. Especially because they often start pushing the market in one direction and the less confident join in.

This is what we do by waiting to see what supply and demand tells me. Supply and demand from last week is irrelevant (especially as it could be because a lot of it is investors getting out (not in).

ETFs - 1100 has broken. It needs to hold that, but it is getting more bullish medium term. My likely long term scenario is that the market moves higher because everyone is so bearish. But I think this could have negative implications to the bond market and that at some point investors will become more positive and then the market fall (we may be in October by then).

Options – I think now is fine to look for Options on either side. Just be conservative with your selections.

Information for Beginners – IF you are placing your first trades starting from tomorrow’s signals then you must be happy with your paper trading. You need to stick to these rules that you tested but also if it’s Forex please start with only one of the JPY pairs, one of the commodity currency pairs (AUD, CAD or NZD) and then one EUR pair depending on the best signals. I.e. you may chose GBP/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF – whatever. Just the first (and then best signals).

Information for Intermediate – IF you are still in trades then I would decrease your stops – as if you were entering the trade from tonight.

Information for Advanced – Look for confirmation in the bond markets for financial commodities.

Scott Goold

Head of Lifestyle R&D

Surviving the slowdown by Endre Dobozy

Most developed economies will face declining spending into 2022 – 2023 and then the next boom begins caused by the echo boomers entering their peak spending. The echo boom isn’t quite as big in the US and the developed world but should be much bigger in India and other emerging markets (excluding China who messed up with their one child policy).

Instead of being at the mercy of the market investors can reduce their exposure to risk, get rid of unwanted debt move out of equities and position their business in ways to capitalise on this. After all, if competitors keep expecting tomorrow to be the day everything turns around then they will be caught off guard in an extended slowdown. In fact, the companies that came through the depression of the 30s actually dominated their respective markets for the next 40 years. Imagine being able to dominate in your field for the next four decades just because you knew what to expect from the economic seasons, took the appropriate course of action and didn’t go broke holding on hoping that things would turn around.

The good news is that the slowdown doesn’t last forever and just like spring is on the other side of winter, a similar fate awaits the economy. On top of this there will be some amazing bargains to be had in the coming years for investors that are able to keep their investments safe.

So, all in all, this time should be viewed as one of the most amazing opportunities for wealth creation.

——————————————————————————–

Trader Term of the Day – Wasting

A term depicting how an option’s value decreases over time; as each day after acquisition passes a portion of the option’s time value is lost or wasted.